SpaceX Drop Below Issue Price Cools Sentiment? OpenAI Delays IPO to 2027, Is Masayoshi Son’s AI Dream Shattered?

TradingKey - According to The New York Times, OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a 13% stake, may delay its initial public offering (IPO) until 2027.

OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO plans to 2027, with recent volatility in tech stocks and cooling market sentiment being the primary considerations.

Previously, OpenAI had confidentially filed its IPO registration draft with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). CEO Sam Altman has insisted on achieving a $1 trillion valuation at listing, rejecting options to lower the valuation in exchange for an accelerated timeline.

Currently, OpenAI's latest valuation stands at $852 billion, with 2024 revenue of approximately $13 billion and a net loss reaching $21 billion. It is projected to spend $600 billion on computing power and hardware by 2030.

Bankers advising OpenAI on its IPO have warned that recent volatility in tech stocks and pressure on SpaceX's share price post-listing could dampen retail investor enthusiasm for OpenAI's offering.

Patrick Munnelly, a strategist at Tickmill Group, noted: "The concern is not only about SoftBank's potential exit timeline, but also whether the commercialization of artificial intelligence is moving fast enough to support the existing valuations and capital expenditures across the ecosystem."

He stated: "The market still believes that artificial intelligence is a long-term trend, but tolerance is wearing thin for any signs that returns may be delayed."

Valuation Ambitions Cool: OpenAI's IPO Strategy Adjustment

Previously, OpenAI had hired Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters to prepare for an IPO as early as this fall. CEO Sam Altman had pushed his advisory team to find ways to value the startup at $1 trillion, compared to its last private valuation of just $852 billion.

However, a series of recent developments has prompted OpenAI executives to alter their initial, most aggressive IPO plans.

Their primary focus was SpaceX's performance following its IPO completion this month. As the largest IPO in the history of US equities, SpaceX raised over $85 billion, with its first-day valuation soaring to $2.77 trillion.

However, after an initial two-day surge, SpaceX's stock price continued to decline. By the close of trading on Thursday Eastern Time, the stock had fallen to $153, down from a peak of $202 last week.

The sharp volatility in SpaceX's stock price made OpenAI's advisory team realize that market sentiment toward tech stocks had shifted, and retail investors may lack enthusiasm for highly-valued AI companies.

In recent weeks, global markets have also been volatile, with tech stocks dragging down indices as investors express skepticism over whether artificial intelligence companies can deliver on their high-profile promises.

During talks with the company last week, OpenAI's advisors warned that the current market environment is not conducive to an IPO at a lofty $1 trillion valuation. They suggested the company either wait until 2027 to go public at a valuation of $1 trillion or less, or lower its valuation target to accelerate the IPO process.

However, OpenAI CEO Altman's response was that any adjustment to the $1 trillion valuation is unacceptable. He insisted that as a leader in the AI field, OpenAI should receive a valuation that matches its market position.

Masayoshi Son’s Grand AI Dream Suffers Setback as OpenAI’s Delayed IPO Deals Heavy Blow to SoftBank

News of OpenAI postponing its IPO dealt a direct and heavy blow to SoftBank Group. Just two days earlier, at the annual shareholders' meeting in Tokyo, Masayoshi Son had boldly declared that characterizing the AI revolution as a bubble was "an insult," predicting that artificial superintelligence would boost a single person's productivity to equal that of a thousand people. Now, the sudden news of OpenAI delaying its IPO has dealt a major blow to the near-term monetization narrative he had carefully constructed.

SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI has reached approximately $65 billion, and it co-led a new $122 billion funding round for the AI leader this March. As of the end of March, SoftBank's 11% stake in OpenAI was valued at $80 billion, compared with $54.4 billion at the end of December 2024.

The market had originally expected OpenAI's public listing to yield massive financial returns—an expectation that previously pushed SoftBank's stock price to record highs and helped the company's market value surpass Toyota Motor's last month.

However, news of the postponed IPO has drastically reduced the certainty of what was once an imminent liquidity event. SoftBank will not be able to monetize and recoup capital through an OpenAI IPO in the short term, forcing it to bear the funding pressure on its own over a longer horizon. Compounded by its borrowing capacity nearing its limit and safety cushions narrowing significantly, its financial flexibility is lower than it appears on the surface.

To make matters worse, earlier reports indicated that SoftBank had planned to secure a $6 billion margin loan backed by its stake in OpenAI, but those plans have stalled.

This news further intensifies market concerns over SoftBank's leverage risks—if OpenAI's IPO timeline is delayed to 2027, SoftBank's cash flow pressure during this period could face an even greater test.

Escalating AI Competition Poses a Major Test for OpenAI's Commercialization

OpenAI's decision to delay its IPO plans could disappoint Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Public market investors who had hoped to participate in an OpenAI listing this year may now face a much longer wait. This move could also impact capital flow expectations between the primary and secondary markets across the broader AI sector.

The decision to delay the IPO also reflects the intense competitive dynamics within the AI industry. Despite the rapid pace of AI technological advancement, commercialization still faces numerous challenges.

OpenAI is exploring new revenue streams, including advertising and e-commerce. The company has tested advertising within ChatGPT and partnered with Shopify and Stripe to develop e-commerce capabilities, allowing users to shop directly inside the chatbot. However, according to insiders, these initiatives remain in the early testing stages and have yet to achieve monetization at scale.

At the same time, competitive pressure continues to mount. Anthropic is leveraging Claude Code to expand its enterprise client base, and Google's Gemini continues to attract more consumers. Meanwhile, after years of rapid growth, ChatGPT's download growth has slowed significantly; its current user base stands at around 900 million, falling short of the 1 billion target previously anticipated by some investors.