OpenAI IPO Delay Sends SoftBank Shares Plunging Over 12%, Masayoshi Son Prepares Roze for $100 Billion IPO

TradingKey - During the Asian trading session on June 26, SoftBank Group's share price plummeted by over 14% intraday before closing down more than 12% at 6,226 yen, wiping out nearly 5.6 trillion yen in market value in a single day. The plunge was triggered by reports that OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a massive $65 billion stake, has postponed its IPO as its financial deficit continues to widen. This comes shortly after SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son asserted in an exclusive interview with CNBC: "The next golden track to spawn a trillion-dollar market cap company will be Physical AI and humanoid robots."

[Source: TradingView]

Roze Sprints Toward 100-Billion-Yuan IPO

According to a report by the Financial Times on April 30, SoftBank is forming an AI and robotics company named Roze in the U.S., with plans to consolidate some of its AI and robotics assets. The company is expected to go public as early as the second half of 2026, targeting a valuation of $100 billion. SoftBank will host an analyst day in Texas this July and has hired KPMG to prepare financial statements, with Arm ( ARM) Vice President of Finance serving as interim Chief Financial Officer.

The establishment of Roze is not a simple business spinoff, but rather a deep integration of SoftBank's physical AI infrastructure, 'packaging' its scattered investments in AI hardware, energy supply, and automation in recent years to build a complete, closed-loop AI ecosystem.

SoftBank has invested tens of billions of dollars over the past year, including completing an equity investment of over $41 billion in OpenAI and acquiring ABB's robotics business. If Roze successfully goes public, it will become the second key puzzle piece in Masayoshi Son's AI empire.

OpenAI's IPO Faces Hurdles: A "Speed Bump" for Its Trillion-Dollar Valuation Dream

However, before Roze has even embarked, OpenAI, the flagship vessel, has already encountered rough seas.

According to a report by The New York Times, three people familiar with the discussions regarding OpenAI's listing preparations revealed that OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027. The company had previously hired investment banks and law firms with plans to go public as early as the third or fourth quarter of this year, and confidentially filed its draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the SEC this month, though it did not commit to any specific timeline.

The primary reason for the delay is the sobering precedent set by SpaceX's post-IPO stock performance. Priced at $135 per share on June 12, its valuation reached as high as $1.77 trillion on its first day of trading, but it has since trended downward, falling to $153 by June 26. Furthermore, recent volatility in global stock markets has intensified, and investor skepticism over whether AI capital expenditures will pay off is on the rise.

OpenAI's advisory team presented management with two options: either wait until 2027 to go public at a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the target valuation to accelerate the process. CEO Sam Altman made it clear that any proposal below a trillion-dollar valuation is unacceptable. The advisory team also warned that retail investors are unlikely to show much enthusiasm for OpenAI shares.

Even more troublesome are the financial fundamentals. According to a report by The Information, OpenAI's prospectus shows a net loss of approximately $8.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026, which does not yet factor in non-cash accounting expenses for warrants, while its cost of revenue reached $3.5 billion. Other reports indicate that OpenAI's 2025 revenue was $13.07 billion, with a net loss of $38.53 billion.

OpenAI Delays IPO: Why Did SoftBank Plunge?

SoftBank has cumulatively invested approximately $65 billion in OpenAI, holding an equity stake of about 13%, second only to Microsoft's 27% among external shareholders. In March 2026, SoftBank co-led OpenAI's $122 billion funding round. The market had previously widely anticipated that OpenAI's IPO would bring lucrative financial returns to SoftBank.

The postponement of OpenAI's IPO means a prolonged monetization cycle. SoftBank had previously sought a margin loan of at least $6 billion using its OpenAI equity as collateral, but negotiations have stalled. If OpenAI's IPO is delayed until 2027, SoftBank's cash flow pressures during this period will become even more severe.

The market reacted sharply. SoftBank Group's share price plummeted during the day, with intraday losses once exceeding 14% before ultimately closing down 12.53%. SoftBank's steep decline weighed on overall sentiment for Asian tech stocks, serving as one of the major heavyweight factors dragging down the Nikkei 225 Index on the day.

At the annual general meeting just two days ago, Masayoshi Son refuted the AI bubble theory, stating that artificial intelligence is still in its early stages and any talk of a bubble is an 'insult to AI.' He also revealed his intention to lead the company into his 70s, dedicating himself to the development of 'artificial superintelligence,' which he defines as being 10,000 times smarter than humans.

Where is Masayoshi Son's AI empire headed?

Masayoshi Son is facing an unprecedented dilemma. Roze's hundred-billion-dollar IPO requires market enthusiasm for AI to support its valuation, while OpenAI's massive losses and delayed IPO are dampening that very enthusiasm. The worse OpenAI performs, the weaker market confidence in the AI sector becomes, making Roze's IPO increasingly difficult. Conversely, if Roze successfully lists, it could open new funding channels for SoftBank, alleviating the financial pressure brought by its investment in OpenAI.

SoftBank is not without internal skepticism. Bloomberg previously reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that during the early stages of SoftBank's aggressive move to increase its stake in OpenAI, an internal executive asked Masayoshi Son: What happens to SoftBank if OpenAI ultimately fails? Son did not answer directly. The Financial Times also reported, citing senior SoftBank sources, that Son's engagement with Sam Altman and OpenAI has made some within SoftBank uneasy and strained the group's balance sheet.

The sheer scale of Masayoshi Son's bets is staggering. He previously sold portions of his stakes in Nvidia and T-Mobile US, and secured loans using Arm shares as collateral to continue doubling down on OpenAI. The 68-year-old Son clearly has no intention of stopping; even as the OpenAI chess game remains undecided, he is already pushing his chips toward physical AI and humanoid robotics.

Whether Roze can debut on the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year with a hundred-billion-dollar valuation as scheduled, and whether OpenAI can complete its IPO with a trillion-dollar valuation by 2027—the answers to these two questions will determine whether Masayoshi Son achieves a second legendary milestone in his life or repeats the WeWork debacle.