Canadian Dollar gains ground as oil prices rise
- USD/CAD depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar gains support from rising oil prices.
- Oil prices rose after a vessel attack near Oman halted UN Strait of Hormuz evacuations, renewing energy supply anxieties.
- The US Dollar may find support as growing expectations of a Fed rate hike boost investor demand for the currency.
USD/CAD loses ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.4200 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices. It’s worth noting that Canada is a major net exporter of crude oil, and petroleum is the country's single largest source of foreign exchange income.
Crude oil prices rise following a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel near Oman, which abruptly halted United Nations (UN) evacuation efforts in the vital Strait of Hormuz and renewed anxieties over the global energy supply.
The geopolitical friction intensified after Thursday's market close when two US officials reported that Iranian forces had fired on the cargo ship as it attempted to navigate the strait. In response, Iranian authorities issued a stark warning, stating that the security of any vessels traveling outside designated Hormuz shipping routes is no longer guaranteed.
The downside for the USD/CAD pair remains limited as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in a 63.4% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates during its September 15–16 meeting.
This hawkish sentiment is fueled by accelerating inflation data, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbing to 4.1% year-over-year in May, up from 3.3% in April. This surge, the first time the headline figure has breached 4.0% in three years, is largely attributed to rising energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, keeping the prospect of further rate increases this year firmly on the table.
Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, rose to 3.4% year-over-year from the previous 3.3%. This represents the highest annual core reading since October 2023, signaling persistent inflationary pressure that continues to bolster the US Dollar.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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