EUR/USD Price Forecast: Stays pressured below mid-1.1400s after failing near 200-SMA on H4
- EUR/USD remains on the defensive for the second straight day amid a modest USD uptick.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions fuel inflation fears and lift Fed hike bets, supporting the USD.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.
The EUR/USD pair ticks lower for the second straight day on Friday as energy-driven inflation fears revive US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1435 region, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, this week's breakout momentum above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall faltered near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting marginally negative. Momentum indicators hint that bullish attempts may remain constrained.
On the downside, the main structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near 1.1330, which aligns with the latest swing low and could attract buyers on a deeper pullback.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at 1.1477 ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1508. A sustained break above these would open the door toward higher Fibonacci hurdles at 1.1563 and 1.1618, if bullish pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
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