Gold: Jackson Hole keeps consolidation risk elevated - OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong remains constructive on Gold, but says the rebound looks increasingly mature as firmer inflation lifts yields and the USD. Jackson Hole is the immediate macro test, with resistance at 4700–4769 and support at 4574, followed by 4520.
Constructive tone but key resistance
"We remain constructive on gold, although the rebound is more mature after the recent run higher. The inability to sustain gains around the recent highs and the subsequent rebound in yields and USD following firmer core PCE argue against chasing in the immediate term."
"Jackson Hole is now the key near-term test. Markets would be looking for greater clarity on Fed’s reaction function. A speech that reinforces the need for further policy tightening could put renewed upward pressure on yields and the USD and extend gold’s consolidation. Conversely, if Warsh acknowledges the tightening in financial conditions and leaves the bar for another hike relatively high, yields and the USD could ease again, reopening the topside for gold."
"Next important resistance comes in at 4700 (recent high), 4769 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low). Break out puts next resistance closer to 4890, 4965 levels (61.8% fibo)."
"Support at 4574 (38.2% fibo), 4520, 4380 (21, 100 DMAs) and 4333 (23.6% fibo)."
"Our weekly dashboard nevertheless shows a more encouraging investment-flow picture. Gold ETF holdings have continued to edge higher, while managed-money net longs also increased in the latest reporting week. Positioning has rebuilt from earlier lows but is still below the more extended levels seen at previous peaks."
"US fiscal concerns add another layer of support. Beyond the traditional yields and USD channels, fiscal-credibility concerns may also be contributing to gold’s structural support. US net interest outlays have risen sharply as a share of federal receipts, from around 9% in 2022 to nearly 19% in 2025. Over the same period, gold prices also rose sharply."
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