WTI falls to near $93.00 as OPEC+ output surges, Russian diesel agreement looms

• WTI falls as OPEC+ September output jumped 900,000 bpd, led by Saudi Arabia's production boost.
• Markets expect added diesel supplies from a US-Russia deal, which Moscow says is unrelated to peace talks.
• Trump announced Taiwan’s $4.4 billion investment in the Alaska LNG pipeline, citing falling energy prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declines after four days of gains, trading around $93.20 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday. Oil prices fall after OPEC+, the alliance comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members and allies like Russia, reported a sharp September production increase of 900,000 barrels per day, averaging 39.07 million bpd. The surge was led by Saudi Arabia, which boosted output by over 2 million bpd.

Meanwhile, markets hope a US-Russia diesel deal will unlock additional supplies, though Moscow clarified the export agreement is unrelated to Ukraine peace talks, countering reports that it was meant to encourage negotiations.

Energy prices eased following an announcement by US President Donald Trump that Taiwan will purchase 30% of the gas produced by the Alaska LNG pipeline and invest approximately $4.4 billion in the project. This commitment adds to South Korea's previous $50 billion pledge toward the initiative. In his statements, Trump reiterated his expectation that energy prices will decline soon and predicted a swift resolution to the war with Iran.

However, energy traders remain cautious about the outlook. Escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to spark persistent fears of potential supply disruptions across the Middle East, keeping market sentiment guarded.

Oil policy calculus shifts as US midterms approach

Analysts at Rabobank highlight the political sensitivity around current energy prices, noting that “the Trump Administration does not want Brent crude oil at $106/bbl going into the midterm elections, just a month away.” They add that the White House “has said that he only plans to escalate offenses against Iran after the midterms are over, with what he hopes to be, a red wave,” underlining how the timing of US actions on Iran is being calibrated against the domestic electoral calendar and the perceived tolerance for higher Oil prices.

Technical Analysis: WTI falls despite ongoing bullish bias

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $93.20, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price above these trend-following gauges suggests that the broader upswing remains intact, even after recent consolidation. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.07 sits comfortably above the neutral 50 line, hinting at steady, rather than overstretched, buying pressure, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index near 131.63 points to a still-supportive macro backdrop for crude.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA around $91.73, with a deeper cushion at the 50-day EMA near $89.31, where dip-buying interest would likely re-emerge if prices retreat. With no clearly defined overhead technical barriers in the current dataset, the bullish structure suggests room for further gains as long as WTI continues to trade above these moving average floors; a daily close back under $91.73 would be the first sign that upside momentum is starting to fade.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)