US Dollar: Looking for a shift in Fedspeak – ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that post-CPI summer conditions are suppressing FX volatility and keeping the Dollar broadly stable. They still see scope for a weaker Dollar as market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening look overstated. Upcoming Fedspeak, Jackson Hole and second-tier US data are seen as potential catalysts, while Gulf developments mainly affect relative-value trades.

Fed expectations and muted volatility

"The post-CPI midsummer environment is understandably weighing on FX vols. We argued yesterday, that this could remain the norm for at least the next couple of weeks. At the same time, we retain a preference for dollar downside, as we still believe market conviction around further tightening by the Federal Reserve is too strong."

"For now, Fedspeak offers the clearest potential catalyst for market moves. There is still considerable uncertainty over the message that could emerge from the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, particularly after a CPI report that leaned dovish without delivering a definitive signal."

"Today’s US calendar includes July retail sales, expected at a modest 0.1% month-on-month, and the University of Michigan surveys, which are expected to show little change from July. These second-tier releases would likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction."

"Meanwhile, headline fatigue surrounding the Middle East remains elevated. US-Iran negotiations appear to be at a stalemate, but Brent declined yesterday, providing some support for global bonds. The bar for the dollar to rebuild a strong direct relationship with oil prices remains quite high, and the impact of developments in the Gulf may remain more visible in G10 relative-value trades, where pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD continue to track the energy story quite closely."

"Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to keep FX volatility subdued, leaving EUR/USD largely anchored. Still, our models are pointing to some short-term undervaluation in the pair, supporting our moderately bullish bias for coming weeks. Gulf headlines remain a marginal factor for FX, more visible in some relative value trades than USD crosses "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)