Japan’s Kiuchi: Conditions not met for government to declare official end to deflation
Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Friday that the country has yet to see conditions met for the government to officially declare an end to deflation. Kiuchi added that the government's decision on whether to declare an end to deflation will take into account various factors to ensure Japan will not revert to periods of persistent price falls.
Key quotes
Government’s decision on declaring official end to deflation will consider CPI, GDP deflator and factors behind inflation trends.
Hopes BoJ steers policy suitably based on Joint statement with government emphasizing need for stable, sustainable price stability.
Conditions not met for government to declare official end to deflation.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is down 1.00% on the day at 156.55.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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