A split BoE votes on November 5 with the Pound near 1.34
- GBP/USD climbs back to just under 1.3400, its second gain in a row.
- The Dollar falls after the ECB, and the Pound gains more than the Euro does.
- The BoE's decision is due Thursday, November 5, after a 6-3 vote for a hold.
The Euro dropped to a new low on the European Central Bank's (ECB) hold, and the Pound didn't, so GBP/USD is up more than EUR/USD. GBP/USD's session low, just under 1.3300, came before the ECB's decision, and it has climbed since ECB President Lagarde's press conference began. It's trading just under 1.3400, near its session high.
The Bank of England (BoE) has held the UK's Bank Rate at 3.75% since December 2025, and three of its nine policymakers voted for a hike in September. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have all raised rates in 2026. The Bank Rate is level with the bottom of the Fed's 3.75%-4.00% range, so GBP/USD's rate gap is a quarter-point at most.
A Citi and YouGov survey put Britons' expected inflation for the coming year at 4.2% in October, down from 4.5%, and GBP/USD barely moved on it. The long-term expectation fell to 4.0%, the level a quarter-point hike on November 5 would take the Bank Rate to.
On the calendar
The BoE's decision and quarterly Monetary Policy Report are due at 12:00 GMT on November 5, and BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 12:30 GMT. Two more votes for a hike would make a majority and move the UK side of GBP/USD's rate gap for the first time since December 2025.
In the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due at 13:45 GMT on Friday, forecast at 56.1 after 58.8. September job openings come on November 3 at 15:00 GMT, after 7.079 million, and both feed into the US side of the gap.
On the charts
GBP/USD's 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is just above 1.3350, and the pair is back above it and short of the 200-day. The two-day climb has recovered about three-quarters of the slide from the October 22 high. GBP/USD has won back a little under half of its drop from the August high to the October 14 low.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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