Brent: Geopolitical premium eases after six-day rally – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent Oil has finally broken a six-day winning streak, with prices pulling back modestly as some geopolitical risk premium is removed. Despite intraday volatility linked to Houthi and Iranian headlines, the bank notes that refined product markets remain tight and that Brent is still significantly above pre-Iran war levels.
Risk premium partially unwinds in Oil
"Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak"
"The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains."
"Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval."
"But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. "
"So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher."
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