China: Export surge and stronger PPI – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao highlights a sharp acceleration in China’s September exports and a record trade surplus with both the US and EU. Producer prices rose faster than expected, driven by Oil and AI-related costs, while credit growth picked up on government bond issuance but remained uneven. The strong surplus arrives as EU-China trade tensions over sector safeguards intensify.
Exports and prices beat forecasts
"China’s export growth accelerated in September, rising 36.3% yoy in dollar terms (Bloomberg consensus: 25.7%) vs 25.0% in August, the fastest pace since February. Imports also beat expectations, climbing 31.0% (Bloomberg consensus: 25.0%) vs 28.2% in August. The monthly trade surplus widened to USD133.5bn, its largest in 20 months."
"For the first nine months of 2026, the cumulative surplus reached USD938bn, putting the full year on track to surpass the USD1.2tn record set in 2025."
"Producer prices rose 5.0% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.4%) vs 3.8% previously, marking the fastest pace since 2022. It was mainly driven by elevated oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions and rising costs for AI-related goods."
"Aggregate social financing expanded CNY3.55tn in September, its fastest monthly increase since June, supported by the largest government bond issuance in over a year. New yuan loans reached CNY1.3tn. However, credit growth was uneven as household borrowing remained subdued, suggesting that private credit demand has yet to recover meaningfully."
"The trade surplus data are landing at a diplomatically sensitive moment. The EU-China hybrid vehicle cap agreed last weekend is already facing pressure to expand, with Germany pushing for safeguard quotas across additional sectors including chemicals and mechanical engineering. The record bilateral surplus with the EU reported for September will add urgency to those discussions at the EU leaders summit this week."
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