Akamai Stock Price Forecast: Anthropic Commits $11.6 Billion to Expand AI Compute, Can $20 Billion in Potential Contracts Keep Driving AKAM Higher?

TradingKey - After hours on September 24 ET, Akamai Technologies (AKAM) announced an expansion of its cloud computing partnership with Anthropic. According to two project plans signed by the two parties on September 18, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements, Anthropic has committed to purchasing a total of approximately $11.6 billion in dedicated cloud computing capacity and related managed support services over seven years starting from the launch date of each service.

The two parties may also expand the potential scope of cooperation to approximately $20 billion through additional purchases, though the expansion portion is not yet included in existing contractual commitments.

Following the announcement, AKAM surged nearly 20% in after-hours trading. On September 25, the stock opened higher and gained over 16% intraday, reaching a high of $128.46 before pulling back to close at $113.94, up 3.2%.

[Source: TradingView]

When Will Anthropic’s $11.6 Billion Contract Contribute to Revenue?

Akamai and Anthropic signed two project plans on September 18 to provide the latter with dedicated cloud computing capacity and related hosting support services. Both plans have an initial term of seven years, starting from their respective service commencement dates.

Subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements, Anthropic has committed to paying a total of approximately $11.6 billion. The related revenue will be recognized gradually as services are delivered, and the contract also includes corresponding termination clauses.

The two parties may also add up to $9 billion in additional purchases, bringing the potential scale of cooperation to approximately $20 billion. The additional purchases require separately determined commercial terms and have not been included in current contractual commitments.

Akamai expects to launch the relevant services by the end of the second quarter of 2027, recognize $150 million to $300 million in revenue in 2027, and reach an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $1.7 billion by the end of 2028. Following the completion of the capacity ramp-up, the related revenue is expected to be recognized on a straight-line basis over the remaining contract term.

Akamai's second-quarter revenue was $1.100 billion, up 5% year-over-year, while cloud infrastructure services revenue was $99.32 million, up 39% year-over-year. The $1.7 billion annualized revenue is approximately 4.3 times the annualized scale of this business's second-quarter revenue. If the project is executed on schedule and no significant changes occur in the scale of other businesses, the share of cloud infrastructure services in the company's total revenue will increase significantly.

How Much Pressure Will $5.5 Billion in Capex Put on Akamai?

Akamai's total disclosed cloud infrastructure service contract value is approximately $14.4 billion, including approximately $2.8 billion in previous contracts and $11.6 billion committed by Anthropic in this agreement. Fulfilling the Anthropic contract is expected to require approximately $5.5 billion in capital expenditures.

The company plans to spend approximately $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026, primarily for the advance procurement of key components such as memory, and expects to invest approximately $3.1 billion and $700 million in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

The relevant services are expected to launch by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and upfront capital investments will put pressure on free cash flow. Once the equipment is put into service, depreciation expenses will gradually increase alongside revenue recognition.

As of the end of June 2026, Akamai held $4.616 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. Existing funds can support a portion of the construction expenditures, while subsequent financing needs will depend on project progress and operating cash flow.

Akamai also granted warrants to Anthropic to purchase up to 387,051 shares of non-voting convertible preferred stock, equivalent to approximately 7.74 million shares of common stock, representing about 5% of outstanding common shares. The exercise price on a common stock equivalent basis is $111.33 per share.

The first tranche of warrants corresponds to approximately 3.1 million common shares, representing about 2% of outstanding shares, and will vest after Anthropic makes the initial payment for Project Plan 3 and satisfies related conditions.

Thereafter, for every additional $3 billion in contract commitment from Anthropic, warrants representing approximately 1% of shares will vest. The vesting and exercise of the warrants may increase the diluted share count and dilute existing shareholders' equity.

AKAM Stock Technical Analysis: $128 Poses Short-Term Resistance

[Source: TradingView]

As of September 25, AKAM's 50-day and 200-day moving averages were approximately $113.27 and $111.13, respectively, with its 14-day RSI at around 53. Although the stock price remains above both moving averages, it pulled back after an intraday surge, forming short-term resistance near $128.

Based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent low of $102.50 to the high of $128.46, AKAM's current price of $113.94 lies between the 0.5 retracement level of $115.48 and the 0.618 retracement level of $112.42.

On the upside, $115.48 is the primary resistance. If the stock price closes firmly above this level, the next targets to watch are $118.54 and $122.33, respectively; only after breaking above $122.33 is it expected to retest $128.46.

On the downside, $112.42 is the primary support. If it breaks below this level on a closing basis, subsequent support levels lie at $108.06 and $102.50, respectively. With the 14-day RSI around 53, short-term momentum is neutral, and the future direction still depends on whether the stock price can hold above $115.48.

Overall, the $11.6 billion contract provides high revenue visibility for Akamai's cloud computing business, although approximately $20 billion remains a conditional expansion ceiling.

If the project is deployed on schedule and revenue begins to materialize in 2027, AKAM could further test $135–$138 after breaking above $128; however, if capital expenditures continue to rise or contract execution slows down, the stock price may fall back to the $104–$111 range.