USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.4100 as bulls retain control near July 29 highs
- USD/CAD attracts buyers for the third straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Declining oil prices undermine the Loonie, while the hawkish Fed continues to boost the USD.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
The USD/CAD pair prolongs its weekly uptrend for the third straight day, hitting a fresh high since July 29 during the early part of the European session on Wednesday. Bulls now await a move beyond the 1.4100 round figure before positioning for further gains amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Crude oil prices sink to an over two-week low amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is seen as undermining the commodity-linked Loonie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, hits a fresh high since July 30 in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, which, in turn, is seen as another factor pushing the USD/CAD pair higher.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3958 was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. A subsequent advance beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4051 jointly underpins a bullish near-term bias. This, in turn, validates the constructive outlook for the USD/CAD pair and supports prospects for an extension of the well-established uptrend.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above its signal and a still-expanding histogram, which suggests persistent upward momentum. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.4 flirts with overbought conditions, hinting that the rally could be nearing a consolidation phase rather than an immediate reversal.
Any further move up could confront immediate resistance at the 78.6% retracement level near 1.4137, ahead of the cycle high at 1.4246, where buying pressure would likely meet stronger supply. On the downside, initial support is located at the 61.8% retracement at 1.4051, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 1.3991, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3958 and subsequent Fibonacci floors at 1.3931, 1.3857 and 1.3736 forming a broader demand band. A convincing break below the said supports is needed to negate the current bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD daily chart
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.54% | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.68% | 0.37% | 0.30% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.54% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.14% | -0.17% | -0.25% | -0.54% | |
| GBP | -0.58% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.09% | -0.25% | -0.30% | -0.59% | |
| JPY | -0.58% | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.58% | |
| CAD | -0.68% | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.40% | -0.69% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | 0.17% | 0.25% | 0.23% | 0.26% | -0.06% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | 0.25% | 0.30% | 0.27% | 0.40% | 0.06% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.54% | 0.59% | 0.58% | 0.69% | 0.44% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Nothing in this material constitutes investment advice, personal recommendation, investment research, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content has been prepared without consideration of your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should not be treated as such.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Forward-looking scenarios or forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated.
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